Journal of Business Management

Journal of Business Management

Foresight of Transaction Platform Businesses in Iran

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors
Mehrdad Nickpay 1
Mehdi Haghighi Kafash 2
Vahid Khashei Varnamkhasti 2
Shahram Khalilnezhad 2
1 Ph.D. Candidate, Department of Business Management, Faculty of Management and Accounting, Allameh Tabataba’i University, Tehran, Iran.
2 Associate Prof., Department of Business Management, Faculty of Management and Accounting, Allameh Tabataba’i University, Tehran, Iran.
10.22059/jibm.2025.387751.4899
Abstract
Objective
Although platform businesses have emerged as a fundamental innovation in the business landscape, innovation alone does not guarantee success. Many startup ventures fail, as reflected in the high failure rates of startups not only in Iran but also worldwide. The reality is that 90% of startups fail. From budgeting applications to legal services, platform businesses have transformed industries by creating numerous billion-dollar success stories. One of the most significant business innovations driven by digital transformation is the emergence of platform businesses. Despite their rapid growth in Iran, many domestic platform businesses continue to face substantial challenges. Therefore, this study explores the future of transaction platform businesses in Iran.
Methodology
The statistical sample of this study includes 10 experts, including university professors and experts in the field of platform businesses, who were selected purposefully and non-randomly. In the qualitative phase, data were collected through semi-structured interviews. In the quantitative phase, a paired comparison questionnaire was administered to experts to prioritize the identified indicators. Schwartz's seven-step method was then employed to develop the scenarios. Qualitative data were analyzed using content analysis with MAXQDA 2022, whereas quantitative data were analyzed using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) with AHP software.

Findings
Based on the results of the thematic analysis, 15 organizing themes were identified as drivers of exchange platform businesses in Iran. The results of the driver prioritization indicated that, in terms of importance, investment ranked first, followed by governance, political issues, and laws. In terms of uncertainty, governance and political issues ranked first, followed by laws and regulations. Based on the findings, four scenarios were developed: the Strong Lion scenario (high investment and sustainable governance), the Migratory Bird scenario (high investment and unstable governance), the Waterfall scenario (low investment and stable governance), and the Iceberg scenario (low investment and unstable governance).

Conclusion
In Iran, existing laws provide limited practical support for entrepreneurs and platform businesses. Moreover, legal institutions make insufficient efforts to review business-disruptive legislation, revise existing laws, and promptly submit legislative amendments to Parliament. The decline in the willingness of the private sector to invest, the increase in social dissatisfaction and protests, and the decrease in international interactions are the hallmarks of this scenario. Overall, given the current conditions in Iran, the Iceberg scenario appears to be the most plausible future for transaction platform businesses. However, this challenge is not unique to Iran, as findings from many developing countries also suggest a less optimistic outlook for the future of platform businesses.
Keywords
Platform businesses
Transaction platform
Governance
Investment
Subjects
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Journal of Business Management
Volume 18, Issue 3
2026
Pages 860-892