Shirvani, M., Fazli, S., Keshavarz Turk, E. (2018). Introducing a Process-based Model for Strategic Foresight in Iranian Companies. Iranian Business Management, 10(2), 349-370. doi: 10.22059/jibm.2017.230601.2554
Moslem Shirvani; Safar Fazli; Eynollah Keshavarz Turk. "Introducing a Process-based Model for Strategic Foresight in Iranian Companies". Iranian Business Management, 10, 2, 2018, 349-370. doi: 10.22059/jibm.2017.230601.2554
Shirvani, M., Fazli, S., Keshavarz Turk, E. (2018). 'Introducing a Process-based Model for Strategic Foresight in Iranian Companies', Iranian Business Management, 10(2), pp. 349-370. doi: 10.22059/jibm.2017.230601.2554
Shirvani, M., Fazli, S., Keshavarz Turk, E. Introducing a Process-based Model for Strategic Foresight in Iranian Companies. Iranian Business Management, 2018; 10(2): 349-370. doi: 10.22059/jibm.2017.230601.2554
1Ph.D. Candidate in Futures Study, Imam Khomeini International University, , Iran
2Associate Prof. in Futures Study, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran
3Assistant Prof. in Futures Study, Imam Khomeini International University, Qazvin, Iran
Abstract
Rapid and broad environmental changes have challenged traditional systems of planning and management, and strategic foresight systems are welcomed by companies ever-increasingly due to their flexibility in changing future alternatives. This research sought to provide a suitable model of strategic foresight for Iranian companies. The mixed-method approach was applied in this research. Using constant comparison analysis, the related surveyed literature and theoretical foundations, especially scientific articles in the last five years in the area of strategic management of Iranian companies, were analyzed and coded. The weaknesses and shortcomings of strategic management, and influential capabilities of strategic foresight that can cover those weaknesses, were prepared and listed. Then, the experts were asked to review and revise the list and propose a finalized list that suggests the framework and instructions of strategic foresight for Iranian companies. Finally, based on the finalized list, a process-based model of strategic foresight applicable for Iranian companies in order to develop and implement suitable strategies regarding the current unstable conditions, was introduced, validated, and verified.
ارائۀ یک مدل فرایندی برای آیندهنگاری راهبردی در شرکت های ایرانی
Authors [Persian]
مسلم شیروانی ناغانی1; صفر فضلی2; عین الله کشاورز ترک3
1دانشجوی دکتری آیندهپژوهی، دانشگاه بینالمللی امام خمینی (ره)، ، ایران
2دانشیار گروه آیندهپژوهی، دانشگاه بینالمللی امام خمینی (ره)، قزوین، ایران
3استادیار گروه آیندهپژوهی، دانشگاه بینالمللی امام خمینی (ره)، قزوین، ایران
Abstract [Persian]
تغییرات سریع و گستردۀ محیطی، نظامهای سنتی برنامه‌ریزی و مدیریت را با چالش مواجه ساخته و آیندهنگاری راهبردی به‌دلیل انعطاف‌پذیری در برابر بدیلهای متغیر آینده، از طرف شرکتها با استقبال روزافزونی روبه‌رو شده است. این پژوهش در پی ارائۀ مدلی مناسب برای آیندهنگاری راهبردی در شرکتهای ایرانی است. روش کلی تحقیق از نوع آمیخته است. به شیوۀ «تحلیل مقایسهای مداوم»، ادبیات و مبانی نظری، به‌ویژه مقالات علمی پژوهشی پنج سال اخیر در حوزۀ مدیریت راهبردی شرکتهای ایرانی، واکاوی و کدگذاری شدند و ضعفها و کاستیهای مدیریت راهبردی و قابلیتهای آیندهپژوهی و آیندهنگاری راهبردی، که میتوانند این ضعفها را بپوشانند، در فهرستی معرفی شدند. سپس خبرگان با بازنگری فهرست یادشده، فهرستی نهایی ارائه دادند که چارچوب و دستورالعمل کلی آیندهنگاری راهبردی در شرکتهای ایرانی را پیشنهاد می‌دهد. در پایان بر اساس فهرست نهایی، مدلی فرایندی از آیندهنگاری راهبردی ارائه، اعتبارسنجی و تأیید شد. مدلی که میتواند راهنمای شرکتهای ایرانی در راستای تدوین و اجرای راهبردهای متناسب با شرایط ناپایدار کنونی باشد.
ناظمی، ا.؛ قدیری، ر. (1385). آیندهنگاری از مفهوم تا اجرا. تهران: مرکز صنایع نوین.
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